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The economic impact of the rates imposed by the Trump administration will soon apply to everyday Americans and will lead to a recession this summer, according to Apollo Global Management.
Torsten Sip, chief economist of Apollo, presented a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump hit the US economy. According to the transport time required for China’s assets, US consumers could begin to notice the shortage related to trade in their local stores next month, cool to the presentation.
“The consequence will be empty shelves in American stores in a few weeks and COVID type shortage for consumers and for companies that use Chinese products as intermediate goods,” he has a note to customers on Friday.
Recession timeline tariff:
- April 2: Rate ads, China container outings to the US. UU.
- May from medium principles: containers for US ports.
- Medium at the end of May: the demand for trucks stops, which leads to empty shelves and lower sales for companies
- Final of May at the beginning of June: layoffs in transport and trucks industries
- Summer 2025: Recession
Source: Apollo Global Management
To support the idea that the US economy is on the verge of recession, the presentation also included data that show new requests for business, profit prospects and capital expenses in recent weeks.
The Trump administration has stopped some of the rates announced on April 2, but has increased even higher duties in China. The secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, recognized on Monday in the “Squawk Box” of CNBC that the current tariff confrontation with Beijing is “unsustainable.” China’s taxes are now subject to a 145%rate.
China is not the only source of consumer goods, but it has an important role in the economy of the United States. The United States imported $ 438.9 billion of China in 2024, according to the Office of the United States Commercial Representative, which placed it just behind Mexico and above Canada in the list of commercial partners for that metric.
While many on Wall Street now say that a recession for the United States is likely to be 2025, Slok’s predictions are to the most pessimistic side. Besent has said that the administration awaits a “detoxification period” for the economy due to commercial negotiations, but not necessarily a recession.
There is also some evidence of an “extraction” in the orders before the tariffs were announced, which could be goods on the shelves for longer than the Apollo’s deadlines establish.
“Don’t expect empty shelves yet – [year to date] The actions are still active and the demand is slowing down, “said Bernstein analyst Anesha Sherman, in a client note on Monday.
– CNBCS Michael Bloom contributed reports.
