Kabul, a city of six million people, could become the first modern city to run out of water in the next five years, warned a new report.
Groundwater levels in the Afghan capital have been drastically reduced due to excessive extraction and effects of climate change, the aging of a report published by the non -profit organization Mercy Corps.
So is Kabul’s water crisis at a turning point and the Afghan authorities have the resources and experience to address the problem?
The depth of the crisis
Kabul’s aquifer levels have plummeted 25-30 meters (82-98 feet) in the last decade, with natural recharge extraction of water exception by an amazing amazing cubic meters (1.553cu feet) a year, published in April this.
If the current trend continues, Kabul’s aquifers will dry by 2030, which represents an existential threat to the Afghan capital, according to the report. This could be the displacement of about three million Afghan residents, he said.
The report said that UNICEF projected that almost half or the underground wells of Kabul, the main source of drinking water for residents, are already dry.
It also highlights broad water pollution: it is believed that up to 80 percent or groundwater is insecure, with high levels of wastewater, arsenic and salinity.
Conflict, climate change and government failures
Experts point out a combination of factors behind the crisis: climate change, governance failures and increased pressures on existing resources as the city population has expanded from less than one million in 2001 to approximately six million people today.
Two decades of military intervention led by the USL in Afghanistan also played a role in the crisis, since it forced more people to move to Kabul while suffering governance in the rest of the country.
“The prediction is based on the growing gap between underground water recharge and the annual water extraction. These trends have been consistently observed over recent years, which makes the prognosis credible,” said Assem Mayar, water resources technician and former professor professor teacher teacher.
“It reflects the worst case that could materialize by 2030 if effective interventions are not carried out,” he added.
Najibullah Sadid, principal researcher and member of the Water and Environmental professionals in Afghanistan, said it was impossible to put a schedule when the capital city would dry. But it was admitted that Kabul’s water problems are serious.
“No one can claim when the last well will dry, but what we know is that as groundwater levels decrease, the capacity of deep aquifers becomes less; imagine groundwater as a bowl with exhausting water,” he said.
“We know that the end is close,” he said.
A past part of the Afghan capital is based on underground acute, already measure that water levels fall, people deepen or in different places that seek water sources.
According to an August 2024 report by the National Statistics Directorate, there are approximately 3100,000 perforated wells throughout the country. According to Mercy’s body report, it is estimated that there are also almost 120000 well -regulated wells in Kabul.
A 2023 UN report found that almost 49 percent of the holes in Kabul are dry, while others work with only 60 percent efficiency.
The water crisis, said May, exposes the division between the rich and the poor of the city. “The richest residents can afford to pierce deeper wells, which further limits access to the poorest,” he said. “The crisis affects the poorest first.”
The signs of this division are evident in longer lines outside the public water taps or private water drinks, says Abdulhadi Achakzai, director of the Environmental Protection Training and Development Organization (EPTDO), a Kabul headquarters with headquarters in Kabul.
The poorest residents often children, are forced to continually seek water sources.
“Every night, even late at night, when I return home to work, I see young children with young cans in their hands in search of water … They seem desperate, sailing through life collecting water for their homes instead of studying or learning,” he said.
In addition, Sadid said, the already exhausted water resources of Kabul were being exploited by the “more than 500 beverage and mineral water companies” operating in the capital city, “all of which is using Kabul’s groundwater.” Alokozay, a popular Afghan soft drink company, only extracts almost one billion liters (256 million gallons) or water for a year – 2.5 million liters (660,000 gallons) per day, according to Sadid’s calculations.
Al Jazeera sent Alokozay questions about his water extraction on June 21, but has not yet received an answer.
Kabul, Sadid said, also had more than 400 hectares (9,884 acres) or green houses to grow vegetables, which absorb 4 billion liters (1.05 billion gallons) or water each year, according to their calculation. “The list [of entities using Kabul water] It’s lung, “he said.
‘Repeated droughts, weathering early and reduced snowfall’
Water scarcity is further aggravated by climate change. The last years have seen a significant reduction in precipitation throughout the country.
“The three rivers, the Kabul River, the Paghman River and the Logar River, which replenish Kabul’s groundwater, depend abruptly on the snow and the water of the glacier fusion of the Hindu mountains Kush,” said Mercy Corps’s report. “However, between October 2023 and January 2024, Afghanistan only received only 45 to 60 percent of the average precipitation that crosses the maximum winter season compared to previous years.”
May, the former professor at Kabul’s Polytechnic University, said that although it was difficult to quantify exactly how much of the crisis was captivated by climate change, extreme climatic events had added to Kabul’s problems.
“Climate -related events, such as repeated droughts, the first snow limits and reduced snowfall, have clearly decreased the opportunities for underground water recharge,” he said.
In addition, the increase in air temperature has led to greater evaporation, raising the consumption of agricultural water, Sadid said of the Water and Environmental Professional Network of Afghanistan.
While several provinces have experienced water shortage, partly within the agrarian communities, Kabul remains the most affected due to its growing population.
Decades of conflict
Sadid argued that Kabul’s crisis is deeper than the impact of climate change, aggravated by years of war, weak governance and sanctions on the country dependent on help.
Much of the funds channeled to the country were diverted to security during the first two decades of the century. Since the return of the Taliban to power in 2021, financing has been used to address an intensive humanitarian crisis. Western sanctions also have significant hindering development projects that could have helped Kabul better handle the current water crisis.
As a result, the authorities have fought with the maintenance of pipes, channels and dams, including basic tasks such as neglect.
“The crisis is already beyond the capacity of current de facto authorities,” said May, referring to the Taliban. “In well -managed cities, such impacts are mitigated through a robust governance and infrastructure of water. Kabul lacks such capacity, and current authorities cannot address the problem without external support,” he added.
As a result, environmental resilience projects have rear seat tasks.
“Several planned initiatives, including projects for artificial underground waters, were suspended after the acquisition of the Taliban,” said May. “The sanctions continue to restrict organizations and donors to finance and implement essential projects related to water in Afghanistan,” he said.
Sadid pointed out an example: a supply project at the German Development Bank KFW, together with European agencies, could supply 44 billion liters (11 billion gallons) or water annually to parts of Kabul of aquifers.
“But currently this project has been suspended,” he said, he only thought that two thirds of the initiative was already the government of former President Ashraf Ghani collapsed in 2021.
Similarly, India and the Ghani government had signed an agreement in 2021 for the construction of the Shah-on dam on the Kabul River. Once completed, the dam could supply water to large parts of Kabul, Sadid said, “but its destination is uncertain now.”
What can be done to address the water crisis?
Experts compromise the development of the city’s water infrastructure as a starting point to address the crisis.
“The artificial groundwater recharge and the development of the basic water infrastructure around the city are urgently needed. Once these bases are in place, a water supply network can be gradually developed throughout the city,” said May.
Achakzai added that the construction infrastructure and its maintenance were key elements of any solution.
“In addition to introducing new pipes to the city of the nearby rivers, as in Panjshir, there must be an effort to obtain underground achiferous with constructions of control dams and water deposits,” he said, Adjughwater Rainwater Henstate Alsoy Facilitation.
“[The] The Afghan government needs to renew aging pipes and water systems. The modernization infrastructure will improve efficiency and reduce water loss, “he added.
However, all that becomes more difficult due to the global isolation of Afghanistan and the sanctions regime in which Achakzai said.
“The sanctions restrict Afghanistan’s access to essential resources, technology and financing necessary for the development and maintenance of water infrastructure,” he said. This, in turn, reduces agricultural productivity and increases economic and hunger difficulties, forced communities to migrate, he warned.
