It was his first address to parliament as Iraq’s prime minister, and Ali al-Zaidi was quick to state his position.
“[I am committing to] reform the security apparatus by restricting weapons to state control and strengthening the capabilities of the security forces,” al-Zaidi promised in mid-May.
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Al-Zaidi is not the first Iraqi prime minister to promise that the state will have a monopoly on weapons in a country where paramilitary groups – including many backed by neighboring Iran – have been powerful since the 2003 US-led war against Iraq.
But with pressure from Washington to disarm the groups amid the US-Israel war against Iran, and the economic challenges brought on by that war, al-Zaidi knows he needs to clamp down on the power of Iraq’s paramilitary groups to attract outside investment, not attract the wrath of the United States.
Several of these groups have played a role during the regional conflict, launching missiles and drones against US facilities in Iraq and the Gulf.
Iraqi oil revenues have fallen sharply since the start of the war in the region in late February and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s main oil pipelines. Iraq had exported about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) before the war, about 90 percent of them through the Strait of Hormuz. March figures show oil exports fell to around 600,000 bpd. Oil revenues account for more than 90 percent of Iraq’s state budget.
“Neither economy can flourish as long as weapons remain outside state control,” political analyst Mujashaa Altimimi told Al Jazeera. “For the prime minister, addressing this issue has become more of an economic necessity than a security issue.”
Al-Sadr leads the way
One of Iraq’s most powerful Shiite leaders, Muqtada al-Sadr, was quick to back al-Zaidi when he announced on May 27 that the Saraya al-Salam group would break away from the political movement under al-Sadr’s control and integrate its members into the state’s armed forces.
“To fulfill the national interest of the State and prevent the dangers that threaten our homeland, it is our obligation to announce the complete dissociation of Saraya al-Salam from the Shiite National Movement to fully integrate them into the State under the command of the military commander general,” al-Sadr said in a statement welcomed by al-Zaidi.
Al-Sadr also called on other paramilitary groups – particularly those affiliated with the largely Shiite, Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – to follow suit and disband.
Some have vowed to do so, including Asaib Ahl al-Haq, a US-designated foreign terrorist organization.
Faleh al-Fayyad, head of the PMF, also said there would be a “total disconnection” between the PMF and any political group, adding that the goal was to make the PMF “an institution subject to a unified system and linked to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.” [the Iraqi prime minister]”.
But other groups, including the powerful Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, have refused to comply with the government’s call to restrict weapons to the state.
The way forward is unclear
Speaking to Al Jazeera, one of Iraq’s most influential Shiite figures, who did not want to be identified, said groups that rejected the government’s efforts would be marginalized, but added that the integration process would have to be done carefully.
“[A lengthy] The process to dismantle these factions is better than confrontation, which can lead to bloodshed,” said the figure, who requested anonymity. “Those who reject the government’s call will find themselves alone. And you will discover that they were wrong.”
But even with groups that have agreed to comply with the state order, there are questions about implementation and what comes next.
Will powerful groups that have built up military power over years simply agree to hand over their weapons? If so, what will they expect in return?
Al-Sadr, for example, previously “retired” from politics in 2022, after his supporters attempted to invade parliament during a political crisis. While he has since maintained a boycott of parliamentary elections, he officially changed the name of his political movement from the Sadrist Movement to the Shiite National Movement, indicating that he is not completely done with politics yet.
Al-Sadr, a popular figure among large numbers of Iraqi Shiites, may be positioning himself for a future in which powerful political parties are more important than armed groups.
“I think he wants to send the message that ‘although I am not part of the political scene, I can still influence it,'” said Rahman al-Jebouri, director of the Academy of Political Leadership and Governance Development. “I think this is a smart gesture.”
Al-Jebouri believes that al-Sadr has shown that he has a “clear understanding” of the pressure in the broader region, with pressure from the United States, to disarm non-state actors, and this may also be another indication that he is considering a return to politics.
“It’s hard to predict how he thinks,” al-Jebouri said. “But I think he now has a solid foundation for a possible return to the political scene.”
The next practical step in disbanding Iraq’s paramilitary groups is still unclear. Analysts believe that the process will be long, complicated and full of unexpected events.
One of the solutions currently being discussed is the formation of a new security ministry that would incorporate various security forces, including the PMF and the Kurdish peshmerga.
“It’s too early to be optimistic,” Iraqi political analyst Hani Ashour told Al Jazeera. “It’s better to think about reality with limited optimism. Let’s wait and see how things turn out.”
