NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) It remains the most talked about stock in the market, even though its performance has been disappointing recently. It’s a more or less flat year to date, but it’s likely to take a big step after it reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 (ended Jan. 25) earnings on Wednesday, Feb. 25, although it’s unclear in what direction.
Here’s what investors can expect and what I’ll be keeping an eye on for the results.
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Nvidia has a history of exceeding Wall Street expectations, and while they are high for the fourth quarter, I suspect that will happen again. Wall Street consensus for revenue is $65.6 billion, up from $39.3 billion last year, or a 65% increase (in line with internal guidance), and $1.52 in earnings per share (EPS), up from $0.89 last year.
The other major updates are likely to focus on demand for the company’s new products. Demand has been explosive as hyperscalers continue to develop their artificial intelligence (AI) platforms. These platforms require Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) to support the incredible amounts of data they need to process for high-level AI applications. Even more, they have invested in Nvidia’s ecosystems, including its vertically integrated systems such as the CUDA computing interface.
At the end of the third quarter, CEO Jensen Huang said the company had a path to $500 billion in revenue from its Blackwell and Rubin chip lines through the end of 2026, and forecasts $3 trillion to $4 trillion in spending on AI infrastructure through 2030, with its products in high demand.
Their chips are still out of stock and all of their lines, including the older Ampere and Hopper lines, are in full use. While Nvidia is just getting started with the Vera Rubin line, it may already be announcing the next, more powerful architecture, which will likely launch in 2027.
Nvidia stock looks quite expensive, trading at 24 times trailing-12-month sales and 46 times earnings. However, it deserves a premium for its highly sought-after products as well as its earnings growth: its forward PEG ratio, or price/earnings-growth multiple, is just 0.15, implying it could be undervalued even at the current price.
That’s where perspective becomes important. If Nvidia can maintain the type of earnings growth it is currently demonstrating, it may command a higher valuation and the stock will likely jump post-earnings. If there are any signs of a slowdown, the market is likely to push the stock lower, even if it delivers an otherwise flawless report.
