The date on which Catholic cardinals will meet to select Pope Francis’s successor It is not yet known, but betting corridors and cryptographic investors are already struggling to guess who will be the next pontiff.
Only a few days after the deceased Pope Francis died On Monday, speculation about who will succeed is already “one of the most popular betting markets in 2025,” said Fairplay Sports Media, which provides information on sports bets.
The next Pope is among the 30 most active betting markets this year, even exceeding the very popular FA Cup, according to Fairplay.
Cardinal Italian Pietro Parolin, the main diplomat of the Vatican that was Francisco’s number two, much of his papacy, led several lists of betting runners, in what the experts called a “global multimillionaire market.”
The British betting house William Hill had parolin on the front with 9/4 probabilities, a safe bet. Tits was the moderate charismatic Luis Antonio Tagle, a Filipino who could be the first Asian Pope, at 3/1.
Riccardo de Luca/Anadolu through Getty Images 
Moving between the third and fourth place on the lists was Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna that served as the special envoy of the Pope’s peace for Ukraine.
Oddschecker, a website compared online, has a section dedicated to the “next” that has been visited by more than 100,000 users, according to Fairplay.
While the betting runners have forged the first favorites, the result of the secret papal conclave is still very unpredictable. At least 15 days, and no more than 20 days later Death of Pope Francis135 cardinal voters must participate in a conclave to choose a successor, usually among its ranks.
While the Catholic Church disapproves the best best, the game on the result has taken place for centuries.
“What was once a limited search largely to the bankers and courtiers of the rebirth Renaissance has become a global accessible multimillionaire market with a click of a button or a touch in a cryptographic wallet,” Leighton Vaughams, Whushams, Whushams? The results of 500 years of conclave bets in a 2015 study.
The “papal betting market has grown substantially” from previous modern agrees in 2005 and 2013, said Vauughan Williams, although “his precision in the forecast of the secret papal conclave remains inconsistent.” In 2013, Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, was not considered a favorite and qualified as low as 40 in some lists of betting runners.
While the experts and analysts of the Vatican evaluate the possible patients of the floors, the cardinals who form the conclave swore the secret of excommunication pain.
“Without solid information to trade in … markets largely reflect speculation, narratives of existing media and prejudices,” said Vaughan Williams.
The interest has also increased this time after the 2024 launch of Oscar winning film “Concónimo” Who dramatizes the pontiff selection process.
An image widely circulated in social networks breaks down to possible successors for their ideological beliefs, and users collect them to characters from the fictitious film.
Some users of social networks have put their weight behind Tagle for their views of modification and tolerance to LGBTQ people.
Another favorite of social networks is Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who could be running to become the first black pontiff.
Riccardo de Luca/Anadolu through Getty Images 
The speed with which the betting activity took off this year “underlines a lasting cultural fascination with the papacy, amplified by the coverage of the media and popular culture,” said Vaughan Williams.
Beyond the lists of betting corridors and experienced improvements, predictions with cryptographic websites such as Polymket have been opened, where investors bet on future events.
The American website, which was popular that it converted the 2024 elections won by President Trump, has already accepted more than $ 5.5 million in bets on who is the next Pope.
According to Vaughan Williams, platforms such as the representation of the polymercado as a “significant change”, because they attract more bets while sailing through an “uncertain regulatory landscape.”
Polymarket placed the cardinal parolin with a leader of 28 percent of becoming a pontiff.
