Ranking Big Ten Sweet 16 Teams by National Championship Potential

The opening weekend of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament started and ended with a thud for the Big Ten. 

In an instant, No. 8 Ohio State lost to No. 9 TCU in the very first game that tipped on Thursday afternoon. It wasn’t much later when No. 5 Wisconsin got upended by No. 12 High Point in one of the most exciting games we’ve seen so far. And come Sunday evening, with only two Sweet 16 spots still up for grabs, No. 7 UCLA unraveled against No. 2 UConn. 

But in between? Oh, man, seemingly everything went the conference’s way in an event that has largely befuddled the league since its last national champion, Michigan State, cut down the nets in 2000. When the dust finally settled, six Big Ten teams had reached the Sweet 16 in Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska and Iowa. That’s one shy of an NCAA Tournament record set by the SEC last year. 

“We’ve been cheering like crazy for the Big Ten, and everyone’s done well,” Michigan head coach Dusty May said at a news conference earlier this week. “It’s important for recruiting, for the future, the television rights and packages, everything that goes with the enterprise of college basketball. How we do in the NCAA Tournament is incredibly important.”

So how do the Super Six stack up? Aside from Michigan, which everyone knows was the best team in the Big Ten all season, how does the hierarchy shake itself out? Here’s a breakdown based on what we’ve seen so far:

6. Iowa Hawkeyes (No. 9 seed)

Round of 64: defeated No. 8 Clemson, 67-61

Round of 32: defeated No. 1 Florida, 73-72

Sweet 16: vs. No. 4 Nebraska (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

What a run for first-year head coach Ben McCollum, who has now guided the Hawkeyes to their first Sweet 16 berth since 1999 and just the ninth such appearance in school history thanks to a stunning upset of No. 1 Florida. Power forward Alvaro Folgueiras swished a 3-pointer from the right corner with 4.5 seconds remaining to officially dethrone the Gators, winners of last year’s national title. Now, Iowa will challenge conference rival Nebraska for an opportunity to reach the Elite Eight, something the Hawkeyes haven’t done since 1987.

McCollum’s team has advanced this far by leaning on the NCAA Tournament’s best offense based on advanced metrics. An offensive efficiency mark of 142 points per 100 possessions since March Madness began is nearly two points clear of any other team in the field, according to Torvik. Much of that success can be traced back to offensive rebounding and free throws. Iowa has snagged 35 offensive rebounds across its first two tournament games and used those extra possessions to rack up 53 free-throw attempts (38 makes).

The Hawkeyes will face a stiffer test against Nebraska, whose defense ranks fourth since the Big Dance began. 

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (No. 4 seed)

Round of 64: defeated No. 13 Troy, 76-47

Round of 32: defeated No. 5 Vanderbilt, 74-72

Sweet 16: vs. No. 9 Iowa (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Last weekend’s triumph in Oklahoma City, where the Paycom Center was flooded with red, is one Nebraska’s proud fans won’t soon forget. It began with the Cornhuskers earning their first-ever NCAA Tournament win by pummeling Troy in the opening round, ending its drought as the last power-conference team without a victory in this event. Then, on Saturday, the Nebraska faithful were treated to one of the best games of the opening weekend, narrowly surviving a three-quarter court heave at the buzzer. Hearts thumped, mouths were agape.

Though Nebraska is known for running an aesthetically pleasing offense under head coach Fred Hoiberg, who received another contract extension earlier this month, the Cornhuskers are playing ferocious defense in the tournament. They rank fourth in defensive efficiency, ninth in effective field goal percentage defense and 11th in forced turnover rate. 

The challenge on Thursday will be facing a conference foe against whom Nebraska split its two regular season meetings: a 57-52 road loss on Feb. 17 and an 84-75 home win in overtime on March 8. 

[MEN’S TOURNEY: Ranking Sweet 16 Matchups]

4. Michigan State Spartans (third place)

Round of 64: defeated No. 14 North Dakota State, 92-67

Round of 32: defeated No. 6 Louisville, 77-69

Sweet 16: vs. No. 2 UConn (Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET)

While it’s true that Michigan State played well during both games on the opening weekend, the Spartans were also fortunate to receive a relatively favorable draw. According to KenPom, they were never likely to be challenged by a North Dakota State team that ranks 125th or worse in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also weren’t likely to ever face Louisville at full strength given the lingering back problem of freshman sensation Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 points per game), who missed both of his team’s games and is now likely to enter the NBA Draft as a potential lottery pick.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t things for head coach Tom Izzo to be excited about entering the Sweet 16 matchup with UConn. In terms of perimeter shooting, the Spartans have already made 21 3-pointers in this year’s tournament (10 vs. North Dakota State, 11 vs. Louisville) despite only averaging 7.8 3-pointers per game, which is tied for 176th nationally.

Junior forward Coen Carr, whose offensive contributions are often inconsistent, is averaging 19 points per game through the opening weekend. Tremendous production from role players like freshman forward Cam Ward (15 total points) and senior guard Trey Fort (19 points combined) has taken some pressure off the Spartans’ center four.

3. Purdue Boilermakers (No. 2 seed)

Round of 64: defeated No. 15 Queens, 101-74

Round of 32: defeated No. 7 Miami, 79-69

Sweet 16: against No. 11 Texas (Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET)

Is there any team in the country more attractive than Purdue right now? Starting with a win over Northwestern in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament, the Boilermakers have won six in a row by an average margin of 16.2 points per game. And during that span, according to Torvik, coach Matt Painter’s team has the most efficient offense in the country with 140.2 points per 100 possessions. On a larger scale, it’s been more than six weeks since Purdue was last held to fewer than 70 points (Feb. 7 vs. Oregon).

The biggest question facing the Boilermakers against Texas and potentially beyond is whether the leading trio can continue to produce at such a high level. Point guard Braden Smith, now the record holder for most assists in Division I history, has 38 points and 16 assists in two games. Shooting guard Fletcher Loyer has made four three-pointers in each round. Power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn has owned the paint, scoring 44 points and grabbing 18 rebounds so far, despite playing against undersized frontcourts. Can they perform as well against the Longhorns’ height and athleticism? How about a potential matchup with No. 1 Arizona in the Elite Eight?

2. Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 3)

Round of 64: defeated No. 14 Penn, 105-70

Round of 32: defeated No. 11 VCU, 76-55

Sweet 16: against No. 2 Houston (Thursday, 10:05 p.m. ET)

Illinois is another team whose first weekend in the NCAA Tournament was quite fortunate. The Illini opened by beating an undermanned Penn team, which only qualified for the Big Dance by defeating a much more dangerous Yale team in the Ivy League Tournament title game. And then, facing the possibility of a second-round matchup against No. 6 North Carolina, whose head coach Hubert Davis was subsequently fired, the Illini benefited from the Tar Heels’ stunning second-half collapse against VCU. They reached the Sweet 16 without facing an opponent ranked in the top 40 in KenPom.

But there’s no doubt that Illinois, seeking the program’s first Final Four appearance since 2005, has the high-end talent, positional size and roster depth to be considered among the best teams in the country. Brad Underwood’s team features a handful of future pros: point guard Keaton Wagler, forward David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers on the interior, a quartet that is difficult for most rival teams to match.

Illinois finished +16 on the glass against VCU and +23 on the glass against Penn, showing how dangerous and dominant this team can be, even when early shots aren’t falling.

1. Michigan Wolverines (No. 1 seed)

Round of 64: defeated No. 16 Howard, 101-80

Round of 32: defeated No. 9 St. Louis, 95-72

Sweet 16: against No. 4 Alabama (Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET)

Fans could be forgiven for thinking there was an element of Michigan playing with its food during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines sat back and played lax defense as Howard hit 10 3-pointers in the first half of a game that only had a four-point margin at halftime. They also only led St. Louis by one point with less than seven minutes left in the first half before finally getting going and pulling away. Legitimate causes for concern? Maybe. But the most likely explanation is that Michigan, one of the most talented teams in the country, always knew it was going to win those games and arrived fashionably late.

Alabama may not test the Wolverines too much either, especially without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, who was arrested earlier this month and has not played in the NCAA Tournament. The biggest question is whether No. 2 Iowa State can advance in the bottom half of the Midwest bracket and potentially challenge Michigan in the Elite Eight. Much of that depends on the health of Cyclones star Joshua Jefferson (sprained ankle), a first-team All-American who missed the round of 32 victory over Kentucky. If Jefferson’s health remains an issue, the Wolverines could quickly reach the Final Four.