It’s my political death they want,” far-right leader Marine Le Pen claimed in November – a prediction that proved prescient, though few took it seriously at the time.
The three-time French presidential candidate saw her path to power cut short on Monday when a court ruling banned her from running for public office for five years, triggering a political earthquake in France and knocking the frontrunner out of the 2027 presidential race.
But far from decapitating the far right, this ruling – that followed a guilty verdict on embezzlement charges – could actually strengthen it by fueling populist grievances and accelerating the rebranding of Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party. It could finally free RN from the Le Pen name that has both defined its identity and plagued it for decades.
“One should celebrate that a legal system independently delivered a verdict, but the impact of social media is so powerful that there is a fundamental lack of trust in leaders. Do people walk away feeling good about this ruling, or do they walk away with an overwhelming feeling of yuckiness?” CNN European affairs commentator Dominic Thomas said.
For RN supporters, the verdict plays into a belief that the system is rigged against them. Some see this as an assault on democracy with Le Pen framing the ruling as an attack on “the will of the people.” The justice system, she argues, is being weaponized – much like US President Donald Trump’s claims of a “witch hunt.”
This sentiment was echoed by Elon Musk who reacted to the sentence on X by saying: “When the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents.”
Allies of Le Pen were quick to blast the guilty verdict using words such as “judicial overreach” and “shameful.” Even some of her rivals voiced concern over the implications of the sentence. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said he was “troubled” while current French Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin posted on X in November that it would be “profoundly shocking” if she were to be barred from elections.
Le Pen’s protégé
While Le Pen’s supporters publicly decry the ruling, the ban will fast-track a leadership transition already underway within the party. Her handpicked successor, Jordan Bardella, now stands to inherit the job of spearheading the movement she spent years building.
Dominique Moisi, a political analyst, suggested that some within RN might secretly welcome this development.
“In public they will shout. They will denounce. They will say, ‘What an awful thing.’ But deep down many, many might be pleased, thinking, ‘This is a younger candidate. He’s more appealing to a larger crowd. And he doesn’t wear the name Le Pen.’”
Le Pen, 56, handpicked Bardella to head the party in 2022 – ending a 50-year-rule by the Le Pen dynasty – and bring a fresh boost to the French populist right.
Hailed as the answer to attempts to detoxify the party and attract a younger crowd, the charismatic Bardella has helped distance the party from its founder and Marine’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. And at just 29 years old, he already polls as well as his mentor.
However, Le Pen made clear in an interview on TF1 Monday that she is not ready to step aside just yet. “Jordan Bardella is a great asset for the movement, and I’ve said that for a long time. I hope that we won’t need that asset earlier than necessary, but in the meantime, I am combative. I am not going to let myself be eliminated this way,” she said.
