According to the most recent U.S. News analysis of the contests, the governorships in three states this year are solidifying, with Republicans and Democrats each showing some momentum.
Since we last predicted the three 2023 gubernatorial contests in June, there has been some movement. Republicans benefit from one shift, while Democrats benefit from the other.
This year, governor elections are being held in three states: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. In federal elections, all three states tilt significantly Republican, while Democrats presently hold power in two of the three governorships.
Democrat Andy Beshear will fight for reelection in Kentucky, while Democrat John Bel Edwards’ term is up in Louisiana, leaving a seat free. Tate Reeves, a Republican, currently holds the third governorship up for election this year in Mississippi.
We are assigning the following ratings to these contests, as per usual: Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican, Toss-Up, Lean Democratic, Likely Democratic, and Safe Democratic.
Louisiana is the race in which we are moving the Republican candidate from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. Kentucky is the race that is turning in favor of the Democrats; it goes from being Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.
Interviews with American political experts served as the foundation for our assessments. From most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democratic, the seats are given in descending order.
It was never going to be easy for Democrats to retain the governorship of staunchly Republican Louisiana with Edwards’ expected resignation. But in recent months, Attorney General Jeff Landry has solidified his support among Republicans, while Democrat Shawn Wilson, who served as Edwards’ state transportation secretary, has struggled to gain traction.
Every contender in Louisiana’s open primaries appears on the same primary ballot on October 14. The top two finishers face off in a runoff on November 18 if no candidate receives at least 50% of the vote.
Thanks to early support from former President Donald Trump and the state Republican Party, Landry, an outspoken cultural warrior, has been the front-runner among the Republican contenders in terms of funding and name recognition from the start of the contest. Landry has been able to afford a significant advertising campaign, which includes soft-focus advertisements designed to enhance his image.
Republicans Stephen Waguespack, the longtime leader of Louisiana’s largest business lobbying group, John Schroder, and Sharon Hewitt are his opponents. Though Landry has been the target of several TV commercials, none have appeared to overtake him. Landry was self-assured enough to forego the opening debate that was broadcast. (On September 15, he attended a different debate.)
Hunter Lundy, an independent who has been investing substantial amounts of his own money in his campaign, is one contender who has appeared to make at least slight improvements. Lundy has historically been associated with social conservatism, but in a recent burst of advertisements, he has emphasized more populist issues, such as attacking polluters.
Given this emphasis, any support for Lundy in the primary could ultimately affect Wilson, the Democrat, more than Landry, the Republican, even though Lundy himself is still a long shot to become governor.
Wilson, on the other hand, is a seasoned public employee who is capable and well-liked. However, he is not widely known outside of politics and exudes a technocratic charisma, which can be problematic in a state famed for its unbridled politics. Wilson has also had trouble raising money; he only started running advertisements in mid-September. Even his record on transportation, which ought to be a selling feature, has served as the basis for Republican Governors Association television attack ads.
Mid-September Mason-Dixon poll results showed Landry with 40% of the vote in the primary, Wilson with 24%, and the remaining contenders with support ranging from 2% to 9%. According to the poll, Landry would defeat Wilson in a runoff by a margin of 52% to 39%. If Wilson and Landry reach